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This applies to the amazing numbers in many serial killer nurse cases, and to unanimous juries in controversial criminal cases with little evidence. All the jurors have been swayed by the same small fact. In the Ben Geen case, the syringe

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2015.0748 Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince Lachlan J. Gunn, François Chapeau-Blondeau, Mark D. McDonnell, Bruce R. Davis, Andrew Allison and Derek Abbott Published:01 March 2016 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2015.07...

I have revised and extended my farewell lecture "From killer nurses to quantum entanglement", and am slowly converting it into a paper on the Ben Geen case https://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~gill/Untitled_extended.pdf with amazing new statistical graphics. Latest version: 3 December 2019. Skip the few ...

It's possible to add some sort of extensions called BBcode to phpBB, in particular, there are extensions for typing math formulas (primitive latex). I would dearly like to have a forum co-manager of the type computer-hacker/computer-nerd [I am the type, but not proficient enough]. Volunteers? I coul...

What is COPPA? From the FAQ: COPPA, or the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act of 1998, is a law in the United States requiring websites which can potentially collect information from minors under the age of 13 to have written parental consent or some other method of legal guardian acknowledgme...

If we would like to consider founding a journal I’d like to bring everyone's attention to the MDPI group, https://www.mdpi.com/ I happen to be on the editorial board of one of their journals (it’s called Entropy ), which has built for itself a pretty decent reputation and (obviously, since otherwise...

Here is a link to the expert opinion of statistician Prof. Jane Hutton at Ben's appeal in 2009. The judge did not allow her to present her evidence in court because it was "merely common sense". (Shades of Sally Clark, RIP). https://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~gill/JaneHuttonOpinion.pdf She suggests tha...

These cases are very common, in the sense that there is one or two every year. A convincing Bayesian analysis has *never* been done. Who will be the first? Here is the complete literature about this kind of case, and it is almost all frequentist: The classic references is S.E. Fienberg and D.H. Kaye...

de Vos, A. F. (2004). Door statistici veroordeeld? Nederlands Juristenblad, 13, 686-688. [Google-translate by RD Gill] Would having posterior thoughts Not be offending the gods? Only the dinosaur Had them before Recall its fate! Revise your odds! (made for a limerick competition at a Bayesian congr...

As you probably know, my main present forensic statistics interest is the UK case of Ben Geen. My involvement in this came about because of earlier intensive involvement in the famous Dutch case of Lucia de B. The case of Ben Geen is still "active". 15 years after he was arrested, legal proceedings ...