Search found 14 matches

by gill1109
Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:07 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: The more witnesses agree, the less trustworthy
Replies: 1
Views: 698

Re: The more witnesses agree, the less trustworthy

This applies to the amazing numbers in many serial killer nurse cases, and to unanimous juries in controversial criminal cases with little evidence. All the jurors have been swayed by the same small fact. In the Ben Geen case, the syringe
by gill1109
Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:05 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: The more witnesses agree, the less trustworthy
Replies: 1
Views: 698

The more witnesses agree, the less trustworthy

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2015.0748 Too good to be true: when overwhelming evidence fails to convince Lachlan J. Gunn, François Chapeau-Blondeau, Mark D. McDonnell, Bruce R. Davis, Andrew Allison and Derek Abbott Published:01 March 2016 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2015.07...
by gill1109
Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:59 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: The Ben Geen case
Replies: 3
Views: 565

Re: The Ben Geen case

I have revised and extended my farewell lecture "From killer nurses to quantum entanglement", and am slowly converting it into a paper on the Ben Geen case https://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~gill/Untitled_extended.pdf with amazing new statistical graphics. Latest version: 3 December 2019. Skip the few ...
by gill1109
Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:58 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: Welcome to phpBB3 (technical info)
Replies: 2
Views: 593

Re: Welcome to phpBB3 (technical info)

It's possible to add some sort of extensions called BBcode to phpBB, in particular, there are extensions for typing math formulas (primitive latex). I would dearly like to have a forum co-manager of the type computer-hacker/computer-nerd [I am the type, but not proficient enough]. Volunteers? I coul...
by gill1109
Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: Welcome to phpBB3 (technical info)
Replies: 2
Views: 593

Re: Welcome to phpBB3 (technical info)

What is COPPA? From the FAQ: COPPA, or the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act of 1998, is a law in the United States requiring websites which can potentially collect information from minors under the age of 13 to have written parental consent or some other method of legal guardian acknowledgme...
by gill1109
Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: Does our field need a new journal?
Replies: 0
Views: 514

Does our field need a new journal?

If we would like to consider founding a journal I’d like to bring everyone's attention to the MDPI group, https://www.mdpi.com/ I happen to be on the editorial board of one of their journals (it’s called Entropy ), which has built for itself a pretty decent reputation and (obviously, since otherwise...
by gill1109
Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: The Ben Geen case
Replies: 3
Views: 565

Re: The Ben Geen case

Here is a link to the expert opinion of statistician Prof. Jane Hutton at Ben's appeal in 2009. The judge did not allow her to present her evidence in court because it was "merely common sense". (Shades of Sally Clark, RIP). https://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/~gill/JaneHuttonOpinion.pdf She suggests tha...
by gill1109
Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: The case of Lucia de B
Replies: 2
Views: 567

Re: The case of Lucia de B

These cases are very common, in the sense that there is one or two every year. A convincing Bayesian analysis has *never* been done. Who will be the first? Here is the complete literature about this kind of case, and it is almost all frequentist: The classic references is S.E. Fienberg and D.H. Kaye...
by gill1109
Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:28 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: The case of Lucia de B
Replies: 2
Views: 567

Re: The case of Lucia de B

de Vos, A. F. (2004). Door statistici veroordeeld? Nederlands Juristenblad, 13, 686-688. [Google-translate by RD Gill] Would having posterior thoughts Not be offending the gods? Only the dinosaur Had them before Recall its fate! Revise your odds! (made for a limerick competition at a Bayesian congr...
by gill1109
Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:22 am
Forum: Forum of the NSG
Topic: The case of Lucia de B
Replies: 2
Views: 567

The case of Lucia de B

As you probably know, my main present forensic statistics interest is the UK case of Ben Geen. My involvement in this came about because of earlier intensive involvement in the famous Dutch case of Lucia de B. The case of Ben Geen is still "active". 15 years after he was arrested, legal proceedings ...